Interesting write-up. Most of us who are bullish on ATUS seem to focus on the same points, so I hope you are right. The question I have is how bad do net add and P&L numbers have to get before we start thinking we are wrong - given move churn and other post-COVID one-offs mean there will likely be volatility in these figures in H2.
Great write up! Soon tempting at these prices. And then I always come back to Buffett's adage of better to buy a great company at a good price than a good company at a great price.
I'm not familiar with US cable at all so sorry for the basic qn - can you elaborate a little on ATUS's high price low quality offering? This is counter intuitive to me - charging high rates with low services is worst of both worlds to the consumer. Are they able to do this because there is no other alternative?
On the "Drahi taking-it private at low valuation" risk, I have the following question: Let's say there's additional missteps and bad results and the EBITDA multiple continues to drop crashing the stock price further. Drahi offers a "take-private" offer at 8.5x-9x EBITDA multiple. Wouldn't take cause the entire cable industry (Charter, Comcast, AT&T, Cable One, Cox, Frontier, etc etc) plus also a bunch of private equity companies to EACH make a higher bid?? Even if Drahi owns 75% of the stock, he would still have a fiduciary obligation to consider any third party offers in addition to his right?
Great stuff! Do you think Drahi may purposley do things that would keep the valuation low while buying back stock then sticking it to shareholders by offering a frustrated shareholder base a deal that undervalues the company?
Very well done, good write-up here Kyler.
And even managed to take a shot at Comcast!
Great write up. I've been a long term CHTR/LBRDA holder, but your write up and current ATUS price may force me to rethink the risk/reward.
Interesting write-up. Most of us who are bullish on ATUS seem to focus on the same points, so I hope you are right. The question I have is how bad do net add and P&L numbers have to get before we start thinking we are wrong - given move churn and other post-COVID one-offs mean there will likely be volatility in these figures in H2.
Great write up! Soon tempting at these prices. And then I always come back to Buffett's adage of better to buy a great company at a good price than a good company at a great price.
I'm not familiar with US cable at all so sorry for the basic qn - can you elaborate a little on ATUS's high price low quality offering? This is counter intuitive to me - charging high rates with low services is worst of both worlds to the consumer. Are they able to do this because there is no other alternative?
On the "Drahi taking-it private at low valuation" risk, I have the following question: Let's say there's additional missteps and bad results and the EBITDA multiple continues to drop crashing the stock price further. Drahi offers a "take-private" offer at 8.5x-9x EBITDA multiple. Wouldn't take cause the entire cable industry (Charter, Comcast, AT&T, Cable One, Cox, Frontier, etc etc) plus also a bunch of private equity companies to EACH make a higher bid?? Even if Drahi owns 75% of the stock, he would still have a fiduciary obligation to consider any third party offers in addition to his right?
Great stuff! Do you think Drahi may purposley do things that would keep the valuation low while buying back stock then sticking it to shareholders by offering a frustrated shareholder base a deal that undervalues the company?
Why no fear of AMZN and TSLA with irrational LEO pricing?